We must remember that the title of this lecture was The Geographical Pivot of History, and that its emphasis lay on “history.” In other words, he was discussing historical questions as a geographer, examining geography’s influence on human history. In this sense, he actually broke free from the conception of universal history produced by prevailing Western-centrism. He did not consider Asian history subordinate to European history. On the contrary, he considered European history subordinate to Asian history: European history was a product of Asian history. Precisely because he broke free from the Eurocentric conception of universal history, he also became a founding figure of global history.
我们必须记得这个演讲的标题是“历史的地理枢纽”，其重心在“历史”，换句话说，他是作为一个地理学家在谈论历史问题，讨论地理对人类历史的影响。在这个意义上，他实际上摆脱了流行的西方中心主义所形成的普遍历史的观念，他不认为亚洲历史从属于欧洲历史，相反他认为欧洲历史从属于亚洲历史，欧洲历史乃是亚洲历史的产物。正因为他摆脱了欧洲中心主义的普遍历史观念，他也成为全球历史的鼻祖。
From the standpoint of political geography, Mackinder divided human history into three stages. The first was the pre-Columbian age, the Asian age of world history, when the barbarian peoples of the Eurasian heartland and the Arabian plateau used the mobility afforded by the steppes and deserts to compress Europeans into the very narrow geographical space of Western Europe. Without the great geographical discoveries, Western Europe might have faced destruction by the peoples of the East and by Islam. Mackinder believed that to understand Europe, we must recognize that Europe came into being precisely through Asia. It was the repeated invasions of Europe by Asian peoples from the East that brought Europe together and made Europeans realize that we are one European people.
从政治地理学的角度，麦金德将人类历史划分为三个阶段。第一个阶段就是前哥伦布时代，那是世界历史的亚洲时代，即欧亚大陆心脏地带和阿拉伯高原的野蛮民族借助草原、沙漠的机动性把欧洲人压缩到非常狭小西欧地理空间中。如果没有地理大发现，西欧可能面临着被东方民族和伊斯兰教毁灭的境地。麦金德认为，如果要理解欧洲，就必须看到：欧洲恰恰是借助亚洲才建立起来，恰恰是东方亚洲民族对欧洲一次又一次的入侵，使欧洲团结起来，认识到我们是一个欧洲的民族。
The second period was the Columbian age, when Western European Christendom acquired the wealth of Asia and the New World by way of the oceans. It was precisely through maritime trade and naval mobility that the peoples of Western Europe occupied almost the entire New World and the rimlands of Eurasia, bringing North America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and a large part of Asia under the rule of European civilization. Mackinder believed, however, that once the European powers had completed their division of the world, humanity entered a closed system and world history entered a new age.
第二个时期是哥伦布时代，西欧基督教世界通过海洋获取了亚洲和新大陆的财富，正是利用海洋的贸易和海军的机动性，西欧民族占领了差不多整个新大陆以及欧亚大陆的边缘地带，将北美、非洲、东南亚和亚洲的很大一部分都整合到了欧洲文明的统治之下。而让麦金德认为，随着欧洲列强瓜分世界完毕，人类进入到一个封闭的系统中，世界历史进入新的时代。
Now, this new age had a fundamental characteristic: the invention of railway technology gave Russia, situated in the continental heartland, a new mobility. The mobility of railways across the plains could rival that of ships at sea. This meant a change in the disadvantage the continental heartland had faced in relation to the maritime world during the Columbian age. At least geographically, Russia in the Eurasian heartland and Britain in the maritime world were evenly matched. He therefore believed that world history had entered a new age, an age in which great continental powers and great maritime powers would struggle for global dominion. We may call this the “Mackinderian age.”
那么，新的时代有一个根本的特征，就是铁路技术的发明，使得处于大陆心脏地带的俄国拥有了新的机动性，这种平原上铁路的机动性与海洋上船舶的机动性刚好可以相媲美。这就意味着改变了大陆心脏地带在哥伦布时代相对于海洋世界的劣势。至少从地理的角度看，欧亚大陆心脏地带的俄国与海洋世界的英国处于势均力敌的状态。因此，他认为世界历史进入了新时代，即大陆强国与海洋强国争夺全球统治权的时代。我们可以把这个时代称之为“麦金德时代”。
His prediction at the end of the lecture was therefore directed precisely at the question of global dominion. To put his statement in today’s terms: if Russia, China, and Japan formed an alliance, they would possess not only the abundant natural resources of the continental heartland but also the advantage of mobility enjoyed by the maritime world. This would undoubtedly pose a mortal threat to the Western world. Does this statement not still contain truth and insight today? China and Russia have now established a strategic partnership. If Japan joined, that would mean the complete resolution of the Taiwan question and the South China Sea question. Would India, Iran, and Turkey not then naturally join this alliance as well? What would the world order look like then?
因此，他在演讲结尾的预言恰恰是针对全球统治权展开的。把他的这句话翻译成我们今天的话来说，那就是：如果俄国、中国和日本结成同盟，那么不仅拥有大陆心脏地带丰富的物产资源，而且拥有海洋世界的机动性优势，那对于西方世界无疑是致命的威胁。这句话放在今天，不也包含着真理和洞见吗？今天中俄已建立起战略伙伴关系，如果日本加入就意味着台湾问题、南海问题完全解决，那么印度、伊朗、土耳其不也自然加入到这个联盟中？世界格局究竟是什么样子呢？